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2020年美国对伊拉克的空袭对意味着什么? 中国将在哪些方面受到影响?将带来哪些机遇?
2020-01-31 暴走的晨晨 3 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:What will the U.S. airstrike on Iraq in 2020 mean for China? In what ways will China be impacted and what opportunities
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/What-will-the-U-S-airstrike-on-Iraq-in-2020-mean-for-China-In-what-ways-will-China-be-impacted-and-what-opportunities-will-it-bring
译文简介:预计该地区的紧张局势会升级,美国将成为输家,而以色列将进一步陷入困境。 中国将再次成为世界第一,在未来5年或更短的时间内,中国将成为中东地区继美国和俄罗斯之后的第三大玩家。 这将意味着,中国将通过在意大利和其它东欧右翼国家扶植的附庸国在欧洲大陆占据主导地位,欧洲将面临更大的压力。 
Henry R. Greenfield
Great question as instead of a hypothetical on what does the recent exercises with China mean, we now have a real life crisis. Here is my view:
China is not yet ready to up the ante with the US military in the ME especially in the Gulf of Hormuz.
China wants to extend its power softly and Iran is not easy to control and it is far away from China.
This is more of a Russian / Iran alliance as it is right in their back yards and Russia has a common border via the Caspian Sea.
China is a new comer to the Middle East and they are about to find out that several thousand years of religious anger and history and wars between Iran and everyone else in the region is not something that can be negotiated easily.
China cannot dominate this equation and will tread lightly.
That said, this is a big time opportunity for China. Like Russia they can play the 'Trump' card of XiJin Ping being his friend which means he will use this like Putin has to increase China's presence in the region at little cost or risk to China. Once again, like Bush before him, Trump is easily duped into all of these messes and is actively diminishing US interests around the globe.
Not many would defend Iran and their horrible policies in the ME especially Iraq which is a client state. Iran is relentlessly trying to reassert a several thousand year old approach to Persia controlling the Middle East.
The USA had them slightly under control with the Iran nuclear deal but since Trump blew that up and has gotten aggressive, Iran has countered with its aggression.
China will gain incrementally in this situation but not substantially if for no other 
reason than Iran is a religious state that is diametrically opposed to China and 
how they treat Muslims.
Expect tensions to rise in the region with the USA as the loser and Israel backed ever more into a corner. China once again will come out on top and in the next 5 years or sooner will be the 3 major player after the US and Russia in the Middle East. This will mean more pressure on Europe as China moves to dominate on the continent via its client states that they are nurturing in Italy and other eastern European right wing states.
Europe and the USA and western democracies will all suffer with this situation but with Trump in charge there is nothing that can be done to stop it from happening.

问得好,我们现在面临的是一场现实生活中的危机,而不是关于最近与中国的演习意味着什么的假设。 以下是我的看法: 
中国还没有准备好在中东地区,特别是在霍尔木兹湾地区与美国军方加大赌注。 
中国想要温和地扩张自己的力量,而伊朗不容易控制,而且离中国很远。 
更确切地说,是俄罗斯和伊朗的联盟,因为伊朗就在他们的后院,与俄罗斯有一条通过里海的共同边界。 
中国是中东的新来者,他们将会发现,伊朗和该地区其他国家之间几千年的宗教愤怒、历史和战争不是一件可以简单谈判解决的事情。 
中国不能主导这一平衡,将会小心行事。 
也就是说,这对中国来说是一个巨大的机遇。 就像俄罗斯一样,他们可以打出“特朗普牌”,因为中国是俄罗斯地朋友,这意味着俄罗斯会利用这一点,就像普京不得不同意增加中国在该地区的存在感,这对中国来说几乎没有成本或风险。 再者,就像在他之前的布什一样,特朗普很容易被骗进所有这些混乱之中,并稀里糊涂的积极地削弱美国在全球的利益。 
没有多少人会为伊朗及其在中东的可怕政策辩护,尤其是伊拉克,它只是一个附庸国。 伊朗正在坚持不懈地试图重新恢复几千年前波斯控制中东的方式。 
在伊朗核协议上,美国稍微控制了他们,但自从特朗普搞砸了核协议,变得咄咄逼人,伊朗就用侵略来反击。 
伊朗与中国不同是一个宗教国家,如果中国对待穆斯林的态度与伊朗相似,那么中国在这种情况下只会得到一点点好处,而不会得到很大好处。 
预计该地区的紧张局势会升级,美国将成为输家,而以色列将进一步陷入困境。 中国将再次成为世界第一,在未来5年或更短的时间内,中国将成为中东地区继美国和俄罗斯之后的第三大玩家。 这将意味着,中国将通过在意大利和其它东欧右翼国家扶植的附庸国在欧洲大陆占据主导地位,欧洲将面临更大的压力。 
欧洲、美国和西方民主国家都将受到这种情况的影响,但因为是特朗普在掌权,所以没有什么可以阻止这种情况的发生。 

Rick Shaw
Great question. Chinese have a saying: with chaos comes opportunities. This assassination among many other things sends a message to china that there is a price to support iranian oil infrastructure since iran is gonna be wracked with insecurity. Yet china can just as easily support iran to bleed the americans dry. The terrain in iran wont be as easy as iraq and the country is bigger.
At this point iran will immediately begin enriching uranium again, it could also conduct terror on us soil or in iraq or the rest of middle east. Also iran has some accurate missiles now and probably put them to use against american bases in iraq. How would trump react? Probably escalate. War or no war iran is a major opportunity and not a burden to china: no war would see china going ahead with oil deals to secure petro yuan primacy. On top of that china has an opportunity to create some paranoia for trump. Simply having meetings with iran makes suspicion that china could give iran nuke technology. Just another leverage china can opt for.

好问题。 中国人有句话说:浑水摸鱼。 这起暗杀事件向中国传递了一个信息,那就是支持伊朗的石油基础设施是要付出代价的,因为伊朗将因不安全而遭受重创。 然而,中国也可以轻易地支持伊朗榨干美国人的血。 伊朗的地形不会像伊拉克那么简单,而且伊朗更大。 
在这一点上,伊朗将立即再次进行铀浓缩,它也可能在美国本土、伊拉克或中东其他地方实施恐怖行动。 伊朗现在也有一些精确的导弹,可能用来对付美国在伊拉克的基地。 特朗普会作何反应? 可能会升级矛盾。 不管有没有战争,伊朗都是中国的一个重要机会,而不是中国的负担:没有战争会让中国通过石油交易来确保人民币的主导地位。 除此之外,中国还有机会为特朗普制造一些麻烦。 仅仅是与伊朗会谈就会让人怀疑中国可能会给伊朗提供核技术。 这只是中国可以采取的另一种手段。 

Norman , 自1996年起经常去中国旅游 
The airstrikes and the assassinations of the Iranian General Soleimani can lead to escalating tension and violence in the region. This will inevitably lead to higher oil prices, which will impact China's economy. That's the most immediate and direct impact on China.
I don't know what kind of opportunities this will bring to China. Maybe China can play the mediator role, which can increase its influence in the region. However, this is quite unlikely considering the increasingly hostile stance taken by the US againt China.
Maybe it's best if China stays out of the whole thing.

空袭和暗杀伊朗将军索莱曼尼,可能导致该地区的紧张局势和暴力升级。 这将不可避免地导致油价上涨,从而影响中国经济。 这是对中国最直接的影响。 
我不知道这会给中国带来什么样的机遇。 或许中国可以扮演调解人的角色,这样可以增加它在该地区的影响力。 然而,考虑到美国对中国采取的日益敌对的立场,这是不太可能实现的。 
也许不插手,是中国最好的选择。 

Salvatore Barrera
Is it because of Iran’s totalitarian Islamic theocracy why China will defend Iran ? Is it because China receives their fossil-fuels from Iran ? Lets wait and see because it was recently revealed today that Soleimani was under the eyes of United States intelligence for at least 7 months before his assassination.  and as of this response, Congress is still looking for evidence that Soleimani was planning to attack our embassies, and they are not finding any…China, assumedly, does not care about Iran but what it can provide China of its Iranian underground hydrocarbons. But the equation may change because what happened to that airliner that Iran mistakingly shot down. Maybe we will see Russian and Chinese power in the Middle East because of this turmoil that started from the United States. Soleimani’s assassination is now a catalyst for the future of this region.

是不是因为伊朗有极权主义的伊斯兰神权政治,中国才会捍卫伊朗? 还是因为中国从伊朗获得化石燃料吗? 让我们拭目以待吧,因为今天有消息称,在索莱马尼被暗杀之前,他已经至少被美国的情报部门监视了7个月。 作为回应,国会仍在寻找索莱曼尼规划袭击我们大使馆的证据,但他们没有找到任何证据。 中国通常不关心伊朗,但伊朗能为中国提供石油。 但由于发生了伊朗误击击落客机事件,情况可能会发生变化。 也许我们会在中东看到俄罗斯和中国俩股力量,因为这场动乱始于美国。 现在索莱马尼的遇刺是该地区未来局势风向变化的催化剂。 

Steven Maranan,与中国大陆企业合作(2018-至今) 
A free propaganda material for the CCP. While the USA is busy sending troops to die in another Middle East (mis)Adventure potentially (almost surely) will displace millions, again, China is expanding its Belt and Road Initiative.
Americans are gearing again for another war while the Chinese are literally business as usual.
Let me quote a two-bit joke movie’s take on American Presidency “Presidents who start a war in the first term always get reelected”
Ain’t that accurate?

这是中国的免费宣传材料。 当美国忙于派兵去战死在另一个中东探险场(几乎肯定会死),可能牺牲人数会高达数百万人,中国将再次扩大其“一带一路”倡议。 
美国人准备再次发动一场战争,而中国人则一如既往地继续做生意。 
让我引用一个关于美国总统的搞笑电影的台词,“在第一个任期内发动战争的总统总是会再次当选” 
这句台词不准确吗? 

Alan G Tessier,在麦吉尔大学学习 
It will mean that the Chinese will invest more heavily in a missle and drone defense system now that the USA has committed criminal political assassinations with its military. Once China has developed a foolproof defence system against American criminal activities there will be numerous opportunities to sell this system globally. Because, after all, no one knows when POTUS Trump will have a bad dream and awake in the night to target another political adversary.

这将意味着中国将在导弹和无人驾驶飞机防御系统上投入更多,因为美国已经用它的军队犯下了政治暗杀的罪行。 一旦中国针对美国的犯罪活动开发出一套万无一失的防御系统,中国将有无数的机会在全球范围推广这套系统。 因为,毕竟,没人知道美国总统特朗普什么时候会做噩梦,然后在夜里醒来瞄准另一个政治对手。 

Bob MacKenzie,企业经理。 
If an airstrike targets Iran in 2020 China will support Iran by purchasing oil from them. They may get involved by supplying Iran with military equipment.
They may even put nuclear weapons on Iranian soil under Chinese supervision as a deterrent to more US aggression. That would at least stop a war from developing in the area.
China relies on peace to do its business so it could be a very good strategic move although a very bold one.

如果2020年空袭伊朗,中国将向伊朗购买石油。 他们可能会向伊朗提供军事装备。 
他们甚至可能在中国的监督下在伊朗领土上部署核武器,以遏制美国的进一步侵略。 这至少可以阻止该地区的战争的发生。 
中国依靠和平来开展自己的事业,所以这可能是一个非常好的战略举措,尽管这是一个非常大胆的举措。 
环球旅行
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