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如果美国现在还清债务,它会成为世界上最穷的国家吗?
2020-01-23 zaky696 2 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:If the United States were to return its debt now, would it be the poorest country on Earth?
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/If-the-United-States-were-to-return-its-debt-now-would-it-be-the-poorest-country-on-Earth
译文简介:在这方面,其他国家的情况要比美国糟糕得多,因为它们的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比很高。美国有充足的资源通过当前和未来的生产率来偿还债务,而无需出售土地、矿产、城市和工厂。但更重要的是,这些债务大部分是美国公民和居民欠下的。因此,如果债务必须偿还(有什么实体能够迫使世界经济陷入如此混乱?),美国的一些人的银行账户里就会突然多出很多现金。这将是对资产和负债的重新安排,但主要是通过电子方式,甚至不是“在纸面上”。

Martin Cohen
Other countries are in much worse shape that the U.S. in that regard, given the debt/GDP ratio. The U.S. has ample resources to pay off debt via its current and future productivity, without the need to sell off its land, minerals, cities and factories.
But more to the point, much of that debt is owed to U.S. citizens and residents. So if the debt had to be repaid (what entity could force that disruption in the world economy?), some people in the U.S. would have a lot more cash suddenly in their bank accounts. It would be a rearrangement of assets and liabilities, but mostly just in electrons, not even “on paper”.
The wealth of the U.S. is in its working farms and factories, in its educated and trained population who know how to perform services (think of all the medical doctors, nurses and technicians), how to grow food, how to move goods to market, how to sell and service, how to build (houses, office blocks, roads), how to make machines and machines that make machines, how to design and market goods that others want to buy. And how to keep order in society. 
What may become true is that this wealth can decline if the skills of people and the quality of the infrastructure are not regenerated. That is how societies decline.
It is true that some of the U.S. debt is owed to other governments or entities outside the U.S. but that is a still-small fraction of the total. 

在这方面,其他国家的情况要比美国糟糕得多,因为它们的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比很高。美国有充足的资源通过当前和未来的生产率来偿还债务,而无需出售土地、矿产、城市和工厂。
但更重要的是,这些债务大部分是美国公民和居民欠下的。因此,如果债务必须偿还(有什么实体能够迫使世界经济陷入如此混乱?),美国的一些人的银行账户里就会突然多出很多现金。这将是对资产和负债的重新安排,但主要是通过电子方式,甚至不是“在纸面上”。
美国的财富体现在正在运作的农场和工厂上, 体现在受过良好教育和受过训练的知道如何提供服务的人口上(想想他们所有的医生、护士和技术人员), 体现在如何种植粮食, 如何把商品带向市场, 如何销售和服务, 如何建造(住宅、办公大楼、道路), 如何制造机器和让机器制造出机器, 如何设计出和销售别人想买的商品上。以及体现在如何维持社会秩序上。
可能成为现实的是,如果人们的技能和基础设施的质量得不到革新,这些财富可能会减少。社会就是这样衰落的。
诚然,美国的一些债务是欠其他国家政府或美国以外的实体的,但这只是债务总额的一小部分。

Marianne Kooiman
The US cannot return it’s debt instantly right now. They don’t have the money for it.
In order to raise that money, government assets would need to be sold. The largest gain in this is the military. Ships, aircraft, vehicles, there’s always a country willing to buy them. However that would leave the US without any means of defense and all military personnel unemployed.
Military bases could also be sold, there might be some real estate companies interested in turning them into houses and offices for example.
But then you still wouldn’t have enough money to pay off the debts, there would still be debt left. So what’s next? Government buildings? There’s always a company willing to buy it and turn it into their office. But then where would the government reside?
The police is also owned by the government, so you could sell all police cars and offices and fire all of the police. Again more unemployment and no law enforcement left. And still debt remaining.
Even if all government assets would be sold, there is too much debt. It cannot possibly be paid off. Certainly not without putting the country into chaos and creating massive unemployment. 
I hear you thinking, what about Fort Knox? There’s a lot of gold in there, can’t the government sell that? Some of it, perhaps. But the truth is, most of the gold in Fort Knox isn’t owned by the USA at all. It has been sold already in the past, only it’s still laying in Fort Knox. It’s now owned by other countries or companies and they pay the USA for the safekeeping of it. That is how Fort Knox is financed.
The only way to pay off the debt of a country is over a long time, little by little. However in order to pay off the debt of the USA, you’d need several centuries of economic boom so you have enough tax surplus to pay off the debts. Any financial crisis would only gain more debt and slow down the repayment process.

美国不能立即偿还债务。他们没有钱。
为了筹集到这笔资金,政府资产需要被出售。其中最大的收益会来自军事方面。可以卖船只,飞机,交通工具,总有国家愿意购买的。然而,这将使美国失去任何防御手段,所有军事人员都将失业。
军事基地也可以被出售,可能会有一些房地产公司有兴趣把它们变成房子和办公室。
但是美国仍然没有足够的钱来偿还债务,仍然会有债务。下一步是什么呢? 卖政府大楼? 总有公司愿意买下它,把它变成他们的办公室。那么政府会在哪里呢?
警察也属于政府,所以你可以卖掉所有的警车和办公室,解雇所有的警察。那么失业率会再次上升,执法部门也将不复存在。但美国还会有债务没还。
即使所有的政府资产都被出售,也还会有很多的债务。如果不让国家陷入混乱并造成大规模失业,这笔钱是不可能还清的。
我听说你在想,那诺克斯堡呢? 那里面有很多金子,难道政府卖不掉吗? 也许有一些吧。但事实是,诺克斯堡的大部分黄金根本不是美国的。它们在过去已经被卖掉了,只是现在还躺在诺克斯堡。它现在由其他国家或公司拥有,他们向美国支付安全保管费用。这就是诺克斯堡的资金来源。
偿还一个国家债务的唯一方法是长期地、一点一点地偿还。然而,为了偿还美国的债务,美国需要保持几个世纪的经济繁荣,这样它就有足够的税收盈余来偿还债务。任何金融危机只会给它增加更多的债务,减缓偿还过程。

Reagan Seidel
Oh, lord, more laughable misconceptions.
The most important thing here is that THIS CANNOT HAPPEN. China is not going to knock on our door and say “we'd like our debt paid back, now.” They can't. That's not how it works.
The close second most important thing here is this.
The lions share of US debt is intragovernmental. Lending and borrowing between departments of the US government.
That type totals about $5.7 trillion as of 2016, which is, sadly, the most recent data I can find on that, but the important bit is the public debt, the stuff the US government owes to other people. It'll work for this purpose though, and there's more recent data on the public debt.
$15.6 trillion.
Not ideal. But wait!
Most of these debts are treasury securities, the same kind the public can own. These exist in versions that have a certain amount of time before you can cash them in, in 1, 5, 10 and 30 years, if i remember correctly.
So the US won't pay off it's debt tomorrow, the same way you won't pay the last 26 years of your mortgage tomorrow. (Unless you do pay off your mortgage tomorrow, in which case, congrats!)
Our public debt is only 80.4% of our GDP, which is just fine.
And even if we did decide to do that, as another answerer pointed out, our fossil fuel reserves alone are worth $120 trillion.

天啊,还有更多可笑的误解。
最重要的是,这是不可能发生的。中国不会敲我们的门说“我们希望现在就偿还债务”。他们不能这么做。事情不是这样做的。
第二重要的事情是:
美国债务中最主要的部分是政府内部债务。美国政府各部门之间的借贷。
截至2016年,这类债务总计约5.7万亿美元,这是我能找到的有关这方面的最新数据,但重要的部分是公共债务,即美国政府欠其他人的债务,15.6万亿美元。
这些债务大多是国债,与公众可以持有的债券种类相同。如果我没记错的话,在你兑现它们之前,有一段时间,1年,5年,10年和30年。
因此,美国明天将无法偿还其债务,就像你明天无法偿还过去26年的抵押贷款一样。(除非你明天就能还清贷款,那样的话,恭喜你!)
我们的公共债务只占GDP的80.4%,还算不错。
即使我们真的决定这样做,正如另一个答案所指出的,我们的化石燃料储备本身就价值120万亿美元。

Johan Torres
The US could pay off its debt tomorrow. It actually wouldn’t even be difficult.
Total US debt is $22 trillion. Sounds like a lot of money, doesn’t it?
IER estimated the worth of the government’s oil and gas technically recoverable resources to the economy to be $128 trillion, about 8 times our national debt.
And fossil fuels are just one way the government could pay off the debt, if it even mattered to do it. The government owns a lot of stuff, stuff worth many trillions of dollars. 

美国明天就能偿清债务。实际上这并不难。
美国债务总额为22万亿美元。听起来是一大笔钱,是吗?
但环境研究所估计,美国政府持有的石油和天然气等可开采资源拥有的经济价值为128万亿美元,大约是我们国家债务的8倍。
而化石燃料只是政府偿还债务的一种方式,如果真的要还的话。政府拥有很多资产,价值数万亿美元。

Aaron Brown
As Carl Heintz pointed out, repaying debt does not change net worth. If you have $500 trillion in assets and $20 trillion in debt, your net worth is $480 trillion. If you sell $20 trillion of assets and use the money to repay the debt, your net worth is still $480 trillion.
I’d add that 72% of US federal debt is held by US citizens and entities. So if the US paid off its debt, only 28%—about $6 trillion.
The total value of US assets is hard to measure—or even define—but its clearly several hundreds of trillions of dollars. So even if $6 trillion disappeared for some reason, it would not affect the US ranking in terms of global wealth.

正如卡尔•海因茨所指出的,偿还债务不会改变净资产。如果你有500万亿美元的资产和20万亿美元的债务,你的净资产就是480万亿美元。如果你出售20万亿美元的资产,并用这些钱来偿还债务,你的净资产仍然是480万亿美元。
我还要补充一点,72%的美国联邦债务是由美国公民和实体持有的。因此,如果美国偿还其债务,只用偿还28%——大约6万亿美元。
美国资产的总价值很难衡量——甚至难以定义——但它显然有数百万亿美元。因此,即使6万亿美元因某种原因消失,也不会影响美国的全球财富排名。

William Rockwell
No. There are several things at play. I am going to make the assumption you are talking about federal debt.
First of all it can't really be paid back and few want it to be.
Also we cannot force people to be repaid. If they don't want the money now. We can't force them to take it.
Then there is the practical matter of where to get the money from. Yes the US government owns huge amounts of land with valuable minerals etc. But imagine what would happen to prices if it all hit the market? 

不。有几件事会起作用。我将假设你说的是联邦债务。
首先,它无法真正得到偿还,而且很少有人希望它得到偿还。
并且我们不能强迫别人去接受偿还。如果他们现在不想要钱。我们不能强迫他们接受。
此外,还有一个实际问题,即从哪里获得资金。是的,美国政府拥有大量的土地和宝贵的矿产等。但想象一下,如果所有这些都进入市场,价格会发生什么变化? 

Wilson Logan
That’s actually not a stupid question.
The value of money comes from the future claim on goods and services that you have by owning the money.
I know, as a UK citizen that if I have $725 I have a claim on 100 hours of US minimum wage labour.
So its the productive capacity that is the value. The money is just stupid bits of inky paper.
So the US would have exactly the same value it has now, only it would have no way to exchange goods and services other than barter.

这并不是一个愚蠢的问题。
金钱的价值来自于你在未来对拥有的商品和服务的所有权。
我知道,作为一名英国公民,如果我有725美元,我就有权要求获得100小时的美国最低工资劳动力的劳动。
生产能力就是价值。这些钱只是些愚蠢的带墨的纸。
因此,美国将拥有与现在完全相同的价值,只是它将无法交换商品和服务了,只能以物易物。

Carl Heintz
Not by a long shot. First of all, you misunderstand the basic equation:
Net worth = Assets - Liabilities
Pay off the liabilities, and you have the same net worth. So it wouldn’t change anything… but it would result in the U.S. losing some assets which are increasing in value over the years.
The debt is triflingly small compared to the assets owned by the US government. Wouldn’t be all that difficult. 

一点也不会。首先,你误解了基本等式:
净资产=资产-负债
还清债务,你就有了同样的净资产。因此,它不会改变任何事情……但它会导致美国失去一些资产,而这些资产的价值多年来一直在增长。
与美国政府拥有的资产相比,这些债务微不足道。偿还债务不会有那么难。

Amith Alexander
Since 2008 the total debt increased by $12.4TN.. In the same time GDP increased by only $6.7TN.

自2008年以来,美国债务总额增加了12.4万亿美元。与此同时,美国国内生产总值(GDP)仅增长了6.7万亿美元。

Glenn 
how is the US going to pay off her debt? Her gold in Fort Knox will not cover 5% of the debt. The US would have to sell off her assets at a fire sale or borrow more money, more debt. The US can always print more dollars but who would accept them?

美国将如何偿还债务? 她在诺克斯堡的黄金都无法支付其5%的债务。美国将不得不贱卖其资产,或者借入更多的资金、欠下更多债务。美国总是可以印更多的美元,但谁会接受它们呢?
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