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美国标普贸易分析师称,中美不太可能达成第二阶段贸易协议
2020-01-23 夏丶沐瑾 11 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:U.S.-China Phase 2 trade deal unlikely S&P trade analyst
原文地址:https://www.reuters.com/
译文简介:一位全球贸易专家周五表示,美国和中国之间不太可能达成更全面的贸易协议,并补充称,近期达成的第一阶段协议缺乏约束力,且在范围上过于有雄心壮志。标准普尔全球市场情报供应链分析集团盘聚网的研究分析师克里斯•罗杰斯表示,这两个国家将发现,很难解决长期存在的贸易争端的核心问题——中国政府对企业的支持。罗杰斯说,在近期内,随着总统选举的临近,美国可能会重新审视与其他亚洲国家的贸易关系。


A more comprehensive trade deal between the United States and China is unlikely, a global trade expert said on Friday, adding that the recently agreed Phase 1 deal lacks teeth and is too ambitious in its scope.
Chris Rogers, research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence's supply chain analysis group Panjiva, said the countries will find it tough to address the core issue of the long-standing trade dispute - state support of enterprise in China.
In the near term, the United States may re-examine trade ties with other Asian countries as the presidential election nears, Rogers said.
Below are excerpts from the interview:
Q - Why did China sign the deal?
A - Simply put, they needed to stop the escalation in tariffs. China is already facing an economic slowdown and this has been a drag on exports.
China has made a ton of commitments to change policies on intellectual property, technology transfer and access to financial services but has not changed anything on bigger issues like state subsidies.
Chinese commitments to buying U.S. goods are very ambitious - nearly $200 billion extra in 2020/21 - and it relies heavily on the manufacturing sector and services and not just soybeans and LNG.
The good news for intellectual property and financial services oriented firms is that the Chinese market has been pried open a little bit more than before.

一位全球贸易专家周五表示,美国和中国之间不太可能达成更全面的贸易协议,并补充称,近期达成的第一阶段协议缺乏约束力,且在范围上过于有雄心壮志。
标准普尔全球市场情报供应链分析集团盘聚网的研究分析师克里斯•罗杰斯表示,这两个国家将发现,很难解决长期存在的贸易争端的核心问题——中国政府对企业的支持。
罗杰斯说,在近期内,随着总统选举的临近,美国可能会重新审视与其他亚洲国家的贸易关系。
问:   为什么中国签署了第一阶段贸易协议?
答:简单地说,他们需要停止关税的升级。中国已经面临经济放缓,关税拖累了出口。
中国已经做出了大量承诺,要改变知识产权、技术转让和金融服务准入等方面的政策,但在国家补贴等更大的问题上没有任何改变。
中国购买美国商品的承诺是非常雄心勃勃的——2020/21年将增加近2000亿美元——而且它将严重依赖在制造业和服务业的进口,而不仅仅是大豆和液化天然气。
对知识产权和金融服务类公司来说,好消息是中国市场被撬开的程度比以前大了一点。

alex
Many American believe the trade war has made United States stronger. The part 1 deal is the proof that China is backing down. It is true that China is backing down a little bit. However, the fundamentals are getting worse. China is putting more money and research into developing its own technology so that they wouldn't need to rely on US tech ecosystem anymore in the future. China is developing a new international payment system to avoid future US sanctions. Once that is done, the world is no longer need swift system anymore. Demand for dollar worldwide will reduce significantly. Is US winning? Really depends on how you look at it.

许多美国人认为,贸易战使美国更加强大。第一部分协议就是中国让步的证明。的确,中国在退让。然而,基本面正在逐渐变坏。中国正在投入更多的资金和研究来发展自己的技术,这样他们将来就不再需要依赖美国的技术生态系统了。中国正在开发一种新的国际支付系统,以避免美国未来的制裁。一旦这样做了,世界就不再需要环球银行金融电信协会系统了。全球对美元的需求将大幅下降。是我们赢了 ? 这取决于你怎么看待它。

ddd
obama said we should get used to the idea of a stagnate economy for the next ten to twelve years. the president known as trump fixed that now didn't he? economists were a few months ago calling for and predicting a recession. well what do you know we are booming. some said nafta couldn't be changed. well trump took care of that. some said china signing phase one was unlikely but lo and behold.

奥巴马曾说,我们应该习惯于未来10到12年经济会停滞的想法。被称为特朗普的总统解决了这个问题,不是吗? 几个月前,经济学家还在呼吁并预测经济衰退。你知道吗,我们正在蓬勃发展。一些人说北美自由贸易协定无法被改变。然而特朗普解决了这个问题。一些人表示,中国不太可能签署第一阶段协议,但你瞧发生了什么。

Paul
You can believe some anonymous 'expert' if you like. I'll take this deal over the efforts of the previous administration to address China's unfair trade practices.

如果你愿意,你可以相信某个匿名的“专家”。我将相信这一协议,而不是前任政府在解决中国不公平贸易问题时所做的努力。

SkrotermSack
Chinese “state support of their business...” The US does exactly the same. Tax breaks, bail-outs...what do you call them?

中国的“国家对他们生意的支持……美国的做法也完全一样。税收减免, 救市……你把它们当作什么?

William
That's why it was very smart to not get rid of all tariffs with part one of the deal. I know many here hate Trump and want him to fail at everything he touches but this first step was huge. Especially for tech and farmers. If China does not come through on phase 2 then current tariffs stay in place. We have been getting killed by China for years. Even if you hate trump everyone should be cheering phase 1 and holding out hope for phase 2.

这就是在协议的第一阶段没有取消所有关税是非常明智的做法的原因。我知道这里有很多人讨厌特朗普,希望他做的每一件事都失败,但这第一阶段协议意义重大。特别是对技术人员和农民来说。如果中国不想通过第二阶段协议,那么目前的关税将保持不变。多年来,我们一直被中国阻碍。即使你讨厌特朗普,每个人都应该为第一阶段协议欢呼,并对第二阶段协议抱有希望。

Corey
We'll see what happens. We are certainly getting a better deal than before, because no previous administration Democrat or Republican did anything more than kick the can down the road...they did absolutely nothing at all. 

让我们拭目以待。我们确实得到了比以前更好的协议,因为之前没有任何一届民主党或共和党政府做过任何事情,除了拖延时间,他们什么都没做。

yo yo yo
It's been 42 years since so many American farms have failed despite billions in bailouts to farmers.
Agriculture is the spine of our economy.
Trump understands economics as well as he understands physics.

42年前,尽管政府向农民提供了数十亿美元的援助,但许多美国农场还是倒闭了。
农业是我们经济的支柱。
特朗普对经济学的理解就像他对物理学的理解一样。

JK
"Experts" said the same thing about Phase 1. But look...Trump won one for America anyway!

“专家”对第一阶段也曾有同样的看法。但瞧一瞧…不管怎样,特朗普为美国赢得了一场胜利!

Vulture Capitalist
How is it a victory for Trump, when China agreed to by less farm products than they were buying when Obama was in office and before Trump started his trade war? Either way, the farmers on the ground are saying they don't believe it.

对特朗普来说,中国同意进口的农产品比奥巴马执政期间和特朗普发动贸易战之前进口的要少,这怎么会是一场胜利呢? 不管怎样,当地的农民说他们不相信。

Walnutcalvery
trade war with China is easy to win !

和中国打贸易战很容易赢!

The RealLily
Trump's trade deal was a fake. The fact that the stock market was relatively unchanged tells you that the smart money recognized it for what it was: a nothing burger.

特朗普的贸易协议是假的。股票市场相对稳定的事实告诉你,聪明的投资者已经认清了它的本来面目: 一个毫无价值的汉堡。

OLDER AND WISER
"A more comprehensive trade deal between the United States and China is unlikely, a global trade expert said on Friday". Same expert who in 2015 said there was no way Trump could win the Presidency.

“美中之间不太可能达成更全面的贸易协定,”一位全球贸易专家上周五表示。同一位专家在2015年也曾表示特朗普不可能赢得总统大选。

Mark
That is what they said about Phase 1 too. Trump has done more to even out the trade with the USA, Canada, Mexica, Europe, and China than any president. The liberals will give this a thumbs down because they hate those facts. In fact, they hate most facts.

他们对于第一阶段也是这么说的。在平衡与美国、加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲和中国的贸易方面,特朗普做得比任何总统都多。自由党人会对此表示反对,因为他们讨厌这些事实。事实上,他们讨厌大多数事实。

bob
Either way Americans have already lost in the trade war with China

不管怎样,美国人已经在与中国的贸易战中输了。

CallMeAce
So the liberals were telling us a trade agreement couldn’t be reached and now phase 1 is done. When does a liberal stop crying? 

所以自由主义者曾告诉我们不能达成贸易协议,但现在第一阶段已经完成了。自由派什么时候才会停止叫喊? 

RDAV12863
I still believe Mr Trump , he has done much for the American people despite all the headwinds he has to deal with everyday .

我仍然相信特朗普,他为美国人民做了很多,尽管他每天都要面对各种阻力。

Marvin
Wake up America. Trump is going big with just print more money and that has been goin g on for the past year, WAKE UP

美国人,醒醒吧。特朗普只会印更多的钱,这已经持续了一年了,醒醒吧。

AverageJoeman2014
The same ones who said the wall was going to be getting built, that Phase 1 wouldn't happen, that the market could not hit its current marks, etc. 

这也是那些说要修边境墙的人,那些说第一阶段协议不会达成的人,那些说市场不能达到目前的水平的人,等等。

Rob
I say that analyst is WRONG. China needs the U.S. markets without which that country will go back to the old China, almost

我想说那个分析师错了。中国需要美国市场,没有美国市场,中国几乎会回到旧中国时的水平。

reed_
The bi-lateral trade volume between these two nations is spiraling downward despite of the possible $200 billions purchases. The total trade volume would be around 300 billions in may be 3 years the most including a huge portion as re-export volume.

尽管可能购买2000亿美元的商品,这两个国家之间的双边贸易额仍在不断下降。5月份的贸易总额将在3000亿左右,这是3年内最多的,其中很大一部分贸易额是再出口带来的。

marcos
china is not going to sign anything that puts them on an equal playing level with other countries.

中国不会签署任何让他们与其他国家处于平等竞争地位的协议。

MARK
US, please, while waiting for China to sign part 2, make trade deals with India and other Asian countries. Learn from mistakes with China and make them realize you can get manufacturing anywhere but not innovation.

拜托,美国,在等待与中国签署第二阶段协议时,请与印度和其他亚洲国家签订贸易协定。从中国的错误中吸取教训,让他们意识到,他们可以在任何地方搞生产,但无法搞创新。

Albert
Fine print in the phase 1 agreement says the current tariffs remain in place until after the US 2020 elections, when China’s compliance will be determined. No compliance, no phase 2.

第一阶段协议的细则称,目前的关税将持续到美国2020年大选之后,届时中国将决定是否遵守。不遵守,就不会有第二阶段协议。

Anonymous
The rules for permissible government subsidies are complex under the WTO. We have sitnessed the fight between Boeing and Airbus at the WTO. Are the U.S. and China going to establish an entirely new set of rules between them? How would the U.S. give up the subsidies in agriculture, for example?

世界贸易组织允许的政府补贴规则很复杂。我们已经在世贸组织解决了波音和空客之间的争端。美国和中国会建立一套全新的规则吗? 例如,美国将如何放弃对农业的补贴?

ROSE and rusty
Cheating and stealing IP will remain strong, until China has AI large enough to move mostly on its own, but in every thing else, they will seek to destroy us.

还会有很多欺骗和窃取知识产权的行为,直到中国有足够强大的人工智能,可以让它独立行动。但在其他任何事情上,他们都会试图摧毁我们。

Commander McBragg
When someone goes against the status quo and remakes how things work that person is often disparaged by the opposition that has been lining their pockets.Just look at Biden,Pelosi,Et al and their ties to China and the Ukraine.

当有人打破现状,改变事情的运作方式时,这个人经常会遭到一直中饱私囊的反对派的蔑视。看看拜登、佩洛西等人以及他们与中国和乌克兰的关系就知道了。

Katz
AND EVERYONE SAID ANY DEAL AT ALL WOULDN'T HAPPEN, AND YET WE MADE PROGRESS, THEY DROPPED TARIFFS AND WE STILL HAVE MOST OF OURS. SOUNDS GOOD TO ME

每个人都说根本不会达成任何协议,然而我们取得了进展,他们降低了关税,我们仍然保持着我们所实施的大部分关税。听起来不错。

Lenny
Will the farmers who were put on welfare be able to go back to farming or will the corporate farms be the ones who benefit? Some farmers said they were promised Mexico would buy more goods after the new NAFTA deal and it didn't happen. As a certain says...lets see what happens.

那些接受福利救济的农民能够重返农场吗? 还是企业农场能够从中受益? 一些农民说,他们被承诺在新北美自由贸易协定签署后,墨西哥将购买更多的商品,但这并没有实现。正如某人所说……让我们看看会发生什么。

Rick
China will now find a way to make itself less dependent on the US and in the long run that is a serious threat to the US. China is already #2 economy and will be #1 eventually with a population of 1.3 billion people and trading with Asian countries and in need of Mideast oil. Trump has accelerated their ascent.

中国现在将找到一种方式,使自己减少对美国的依赖,从长远来看,这是对美国的严重威胁。中国已经是世界第二大经济体,并将最终成为世界第一,它拥有13亿人口,与亚洲国家有贸易往来,且需要中东石油。特朗普加速了他们的崛起。

Trevor B
the trade war isn't really about trade, it's about technological superiority. In that regard, the United States is becoming more, not less hostile."????????..

贸易战实际上不是关于贸易的,而是关于技术优势的。在这方面,美国的敌意正变得更强,而不是更弱。

Steve Martinez
I will believe Pres Trump over the experts every time,..he has proven them wrong at every turn!

我相信川普总统每次都比专家强…他处处都证明了他们是错的!

Mark
The whole thing was just a rouse. Nothing will change. VOTES VOTES VOTES. But Trump isn't going to be the next prez no matter what happens at this point. 

整件事只是一场骚动。不会发生任何改变。这只是为了选票。但无论此时此刻发生什么,特朗普都不会成为下一任总统。

Nikkoh
Phase 1 is a nothing burger to shut everyone up until the election. Actual negotiation will only happen until there is a clear winner because to China trade deal with us is political not economical. Trump lied over 15k times. Trump reneges on treaties and deals left and right. If you were Xi why would you go into a deal with him. And if you do and Trump reneges how are you going to explain that to your people. Why would Xi take the risk when he doesn't need to. He can wait to see who wins the election to decide his next move. It's all but guaranteed there is not going to be any deal until after November. 

第一阶段是为了让所有人闭嘴,直到选举。直到有一个明确的赢家,真正的谈判才会发生,因为对中国来说,与美国的贸易协议是政治上的,而不是经济上的。特朗普撒谎超过了1.5万次。特朗普背弃了条约和协议。如果你是中国领导人,你为什么要和他做交易? 如果你这么做了,特朗普食言了,你怎么向你的人民解释呢? 为什么中国领导人会在没必要的时候冒这个险呢? 他可以等着看谁赢得选举来决定下一步行动。几乎可以保证在11月之前不会有任何交易。

Art
Both sides signed the deal knowing it wouldn't go any further. China did in order to stop any further tariffs, and trump did it to try and DEFLECT eyes away from his IMPEACHMENT!!

双方都签署了协议,但都知道不会有任何进展。中国这么做是为了阻止任何进一步的关税,而特朗普这么做是为了转移人们对他被弹劾的注意力!!

life_isa_beach
for the sake of the overall economy of the United States …. the Corporations of this country should be preparing for an across the board ban of all Chinses products to be sold within the borders of the United States …. 

为了美国的整体经济……这个国家的公司应该准备全面禁止所有中国产品在美国境内销售。
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