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2020-01-25 Cathy Zhao 4 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:What happens if the US withdraw from NATO?
Josh Breshears
First I saw an answer saying that other countries are not contributing their fair share.
This is in relation to DJT’s assertion that Germany was not paying its fair share most likely.
That is simply not true.
Nations have only agreed to ensure that 1% of their GDP is contributed to NATO, with 2% being the goal. Countries spend money on their own military’s and national defense, only about half the members actually contribute approx 2% or more on a regular basis.
But all major parties contribute the agreed upon 1%. The exceptions are the smaller nations- Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia…
Which really do not have all that much to give in the first place and whose contributions would largely be seen as honorary rather than making a significant impact. They joined primarily for the protection offered, and in order to make friends not enemies were allowed to join. You will notice some of those listed countries might piss off other nations less friendly to the US…
That alone makes it worth it to the US and most other major contributors (Including France or Germany) to cover their costs out of our own pockets.
The United States in 2017 contributed 3.61% of its own GDP, approximately accounting for 1/5 (ish) of NATO funding/contributions. Germany accounts for over 14% by comparison. Given the size and economic differences… Seems like Germany is paying in a relatively comparable amount to the US. Which is why both Germany and the US ambassador called BS on DJT’s claim.
Additionally, in 2014 as well as reaffirmed in 2016 at a summit, members agreed to up contributions to the 2% level. By 2024.
1% is currently the required amount but all members (probably with exception of the above mentioned smaller ones) have agreed by 2024 to up that to 2%.

Josh Breshears

Peter Hawkins, fascinated (outside) observer of American politics
Best case scenario:
Worldwide economic crisis.
There would be tremendous panic, both amongst the European NATO allies and amongst non-NATO but close American allies like Japan.
These panicking nations would be forced to quickly retool their economies for defence production. This retooling would cause major falling living standards and so a demand crisis for civilian goods. This leads to international economic crisis and worldwide recession. Major nuclear proliferation takes place too. Germany and Japan in particular would be working fast towards a bomb. 
That's a decent case scenario. No shots fired. Just a huge recession.
Worst case scenario:
Great Russo-European War.
Russia senses opportunity and overruns the Baltic nations in a matter of days and advances further West. European allies unable to blunt a Russian attack and it quickly escalates to a nuclear exchange. Millions dead (the UK expends an entire boat’s worth of missiles on Moscow in accordance with the Moscow Criterion. Russia responds in kind on London). Nevertheless the war continues and Russian troops reach the Channel due to European allies running out of materiel. European allies surrender and a negotiated peace allows Russian to keep Baltic states and a significant buffer zone (e.g. Likes of Poland can't be in the EU).

Peter HawKins,对美国政治着迷的(业余)观察家。

Vance Baker, Retired US Army, Military Intellgence
The US would have to set up a some bases in Africa to support US operations in the Mid East. The US would have to commit more Naval assets to Med the now that it I no longer secured by out allies and the supply and trade line is vital. NATO would become fully integrated with the EU military component. The Europeans would refocus the forces from supporting the US in the Afghanistan and other places a reorient them for the defense of Europe. They would likely get a visit from China who offer trade and investment including in European defense industries in return for tech sharing and an option buy weapons systems. Without the US pushing them Europe would likely end sanctions on Russia and restore ties. The US would have to increase defense spending to secure the Atlantic as it would no longer be as secure. The loss of NATO would a huge blow to US security and open door for China who love have the increase in influence in Europe.

Vance Baker,退役的美国陆军,军事知识分子。

Tomas Torheim
A number of things could happen, all dependent on how and why the US left the alliance, on a general basis:
Withdrawal of all US nationals working with or in the NATO organisation.
Withdrawal of all US military personnel stationed in Europe and other NATO countries.
Most likely a withdrawal of all NATO personnel in Afghanistan and Iraq. 
US troop presence in Afghanistan and Iraq will most likely be heavily reduced for an unspecified amount of time, until projective capabilities are restored.
New treaties must be negotiated with individual countries outside NATO, so that US projective capabilities can be restored.
Restructuring of US defense plans, new defensive perimeters must be planned, outside of European territorial waters.
A realignment of NATO, towards Africa and Middle East in defense of mainly European interests.
A possibility that Turkey leaves the NATO alliance.
NATO countries reaffirm their commitment to each other, and start channeling funds towards reestablishing logistic capabilities lost when the US left. But not to the same extent, as a world spanning projection of force will not be needed.

Tomas Torheim

Mike Wolfson
First off America could reduce military spending by 1/3. Second our military would be much more flexible and agile in choices and abilities. Third we would no longer be shackled to ungrateful countries that are unwilling to spend the money and make the sacrifices necessary to actually defend themselves which is most definitely their responsibility and not ours. Fourth our relations with Russia would most likely be much better. Fifth we could lower taxes but the Dems would most likely not go along with that. Sixth we could then focus on our own problems. Nato has cost the American TAXPAYERS trillions of dollars, more than enough to take care of our problems. I could go on and on but by now you should get the point: which is nato has been and is a millstone around our necks. Would you sacrifice your money and lives for those who don't appreciate what you do for them?,who badmouth and insult you any chance they get?,who have no problem accepting your money and protection with one hand while stabbing you in the back with the other? Would you? If you answer yes I suggest you do a serious self analysis. 

Mike Wolfson
首先,美国可以削减三分之一的军费开支。第二,我们的军队将在选择和能力上更加灵活和敏捷。第三,我们将不再被束缚在忘恩负义的国家身上,他们不愿意花钱,不愿意做出必要的牺牲来真正保卫自己,而这无疑是他们的责任,而不是我们的。第四,我们与俄罗斯的关系很可能会好得多。第五,我们可以减税,但民主党人很可能不会同意。第六,我们可以专注于自己的问题。北约已经花费了美国纳税人数万亿美元,这些钱足以解决我们的问题。我可以一直说下去,但现在你应该明白了: 北约一直以来都是我们的沉重负担。你愿意为那些不感激你为他们所做的一切的人牺牲金钱和生命吗? 他们一有机会就说你的坏话和侮辱你。他们能在接受你的钱和保护的同时,在背后捅你一刀。你愿意吗?如果你的答案是肯定的,那么我建议你做一个认真的自我分析。

David Crawford, former British Army Infantry Officer (1974-1994)
The NATO alliance is made of 29 nations. No single nation, especially the USA could disband it. NATO is not like the former Warsaw Pact , no single member irrespective of size or power can dictate alliance policy or actions.

David Crawford,前英国陆军步兵军官(1974-1994)。

Charles Jannuzi, Associate Professor (1994-present)
NATO would collapse. The UK, France, Britain, and Italy would probably try to form some sort of alliance but, with Britain leaving the EU, it would not get very far. Russia would push on with its oil and gas pipeline projects, sell Europe much cheaper energy, and Europe would economically flourish. This would probably make the US revert to a trade war .

Charles Jannuzi,副教授(1994 -现在)。

Fredrik Payedar, studied Accounting & Economics at University of Gothenburg (2005)
Then the European union would be forced to spend 50- 100 billion more on it’s defenses per year.
This may not necessarily mean that the united states will save that much though. Will the USA stop investing in super expensive military technology for this reason? Will it decrease it huge nuclear stockpile . Will it disband it’s powerful navy? Only around 50 000 US troops are stationed in Europe so any further downsizing will have to be done elsewhere?
And then who knows what will happen in the future. Perhaps a different Russia after the next oil price crash
Will join a different, more conservative Europe. Then a new power will have been born possibly stronger than the USA.

Fredrik Payedar,曾在哥德堡大学学习会计与经济学(2005)。
那么欧盟将被迫每年花费500 - 1000亿美元用于防御。
但这并不一定意味着美国将节省这么多。美国会因此停止对超级昂贵的军事技术的投资吗? 它会减少巨大的核储备吗? 它会解散它强大的海军吗? 只有大约5万美军驻扎在欧洲,所以任何进一步的裁员将不得不在其他地方进行?
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