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中国与非洲的债务陷阱外交是真的吗? 如果是这样,为什么一些非洲国家要签署更多的协议呢?
2020-01-26 暴走的晨晨 4 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:Is Chinese debt trap diplomacy with Africa real? If so, why are some African countries signing up for more?
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/Is-Chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-with-Africa-real-If-so-why-are-some-African-countries-signing-up-for-more
译文简介:“债务陷阱”的标签基本上是美国地缘政治势力破坏中国“一带一路”倡议的又一次尝试。
Francis Korkor
African countries are signing up for more because they can do their own analysis, and they know that the Chinese loans are not a debt trap.
You see, people from some western countries who never before cared about Africa, have suddenly turned themselves into the protector of Africans, and appear to be concerned about the possibility of Africa being exploited, while in actual fact their concerns spring out of jealousy, that the China-African relationship might power these two regions to be able to be at par with the developed countries.
I just listened to BBC Hardtalk, where the host of the program put this exact same question to Ghana’s president Akufo-Addo. The Ghanaian president eloquently explained that China is not exploiting Africa. Rather most African countries and governments have a development plan, and they are looking for a partner Country to help them fund their development programs. He explained that any partnership the various governments engage in, they do so because it is the kind of partnership that fits their development objectives. The African countries don’t even care which country they are dealing with, except that the relationship should benefit the citizenry. As president Akufo-Addo explained during the interview, currently China, is the country that provides a plan and relationship, that benefits we the Africans and fit into our development plan.
The USA and other western countries are still partners in development, but their idea of always dabbling in domestic politics and sometimes freezing development aid to African countries to make sure that domestic politics suits their interests, has not helped Africa. Contrary, China does not dabble in local domestic politics of African countries. They respect the partner countries, restrict the relationship to only economic, and stay clear of domestic politics. This is what Africa currently needs from our development partners, and that is why Africa is engaging more and more with China instead of the western countries.
In 2017 alone, China-African trade increased to $170 billion US dollars. As president Trump continue to put tariffs on Chinese exports, China is gradually turning to Africa to make up the difference. At the end both Africa and China will benefit, or China alone.

Francis Korkor
非洲国家正在签署更多的协议,因为他们可以自己分析,而且他们知道中国的贷款不是债务陷阱。
你看,一些西方国家的人以前根本不关心非洲,现在却突然变成了非洲人的保护者,而且他们似乎担心非洲被剥削的可能性,但实际上他们的担心是出于嫉妒,认为中非关系可能使这两个地区与发达国家平起平坐。
我刚刚听了BBC的Hardtalk节目,节目主持人向加纳总统阿库福-阿多提出了同样的问题。加纳总统雄辩地解释说,中国没有剥削非洲。大多数非洲国家和政府都有一个发展计划,他们正在寻找一个伙伴国家来帮助他们为发展项目提供资金。他解释说,各国政府之所以这样做,是因为这种伙伴关系符合它们的发展目标。非洲国家甚至不关心他们在和哪个国家打交道,只要这种关系应该有利于公民。正如阿库福-阿多总统在接受采访时所解释的那样,目前中国是一个提供计划和关系的国家,它使我们非洲人受益,并符合我们的发展计划。
美国和其他西方国家仍然是发展伙伴,但他们总是涉足国内政治,有时还冻结对非洲国家的发展援助,以确保国内政治符合他们的利益,这对非洲没有帮助。相反,中国没有涉足非洲国家的国内政治。他们尊重伙伴国,将双边关系限制在经济领域,远离国内政治。这是非洲目前需要从发展伙伴那里得到的,也是非洲越来越多地与中国而不是西方国家接触的原因。
2017年,中非贸易额达到1700亿美元。随着特朗普总统继续对中国出口商品加征关税,中国正逐渐转向非洲以弥补差距。最终,非洲和中国都将受益,或者只有中国受益。

Ray Comeau, Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
The debt trap label is largely another attempt by US geopolitical forces to undermine China’s BRI initiative.
The US led World Bank has been subject to constant criticism about its lack of response to developing countries for loans for infrastructure .
The World Bank has long been criticized by non-governmental organizations, and academics, including Henry Hazlitt, Ludwig Von Mises, and its former Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz. The World Bank along with the monetary system it was designed within would promote world inflation and "a world in which international trade is State-dominated" .
Another criticism revolves around the many development projects carried out by the World Bank is not the alleviation of poverty. Instead the projects often serve to expand the exercise of bureaucratic state power. Case-studies of development projects shows that the World Bank ignored the political and cultural character of the state in crafting their projects. As a result, the projects failed to help the poor, but succeeded in expanding the government bureaucracy.
In response to dissatisfaction with the World Bank, China responded with an alternative for nations needing to develop its infrastructure. China approaches these loans on a commercial basis. The leaders of African nations choose what they want for their nation.
In turn the US can provide their own investment program for aiding Africa ……. but today’s US foreign policy can be summed up by “America First” and “shit hole countries”.

Ray Comeau,从事风险分析和战略规划数十年,
“债务陷阱”的标签基本上是美国地缘政治势力破坏中国“一带一路”倡议的又一次尝试。
以美国为首的世界银行一直受到批评,称其在向发展中国家提供基础设施贷款方面缺乏回应。
世界银行长期以来一直受到非政府组织和学术界的批评,其中包括亨利·黑兹利特、路德维希·冯·米塞斯以及世界银行前首席经济学家约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨。世界银行以及它所设计的货币体系将会促进世界通货膨胀和“一个国际贸易由国家主导的世界”。
另一种批评围绕着世界银行实施的许多发展项目并没有减轻贫困。相反,这些项目往往有助于扩大官僚国家权力的行使。对发展项目的个案研究表明,世界银行在拟订其项目时忽视了国家的政治和文化特性。结果,这些项目没能帮助穷人,却成功地扩大了政府的政府官僚主义。
反过来,美国也可以提供他们自己的投资计划来援助非洲,但今天的美国外交政策可以用“美国优先”和“狗屎国家”来概括。

Alphons Ranner
There are positive and negative aspects of Chinese investments in Africa. As to the negative aspects there are two main issues. Projects that are not economically feasible in the sense that a proper cost benefit analysis will provide net negative results. The other is that the investments overburden the public sector budgets in the short term with high repayments and interest costs. This apart from the peculiar way of Chinese cost accounting ( risk margins, profit margins, briberies etc are not always taken into account).
Why do African countries sign up for more? Several reasons: the politicians have a very (far too) optimistic view about the future when the investment projects will be finished and the future revenues that are estimated and provide supposedly net resources. Another reason could be temporary attractive commodity prices supposedly continuing in the future. Another reason is social / political: the Chinese companies do not ask questions about human rights and often ignore the illegitimate surrogate wars that are so devastating to life and property. Moreover they accept the common bribery and corruption practices in the form of diversion of resources away from priority areas like health and education toward maintaining the one party authoritarian rule and their consequences etc. As is well known in quite some countries the situation is far from full democracy. 
mr Cohen blames the woes of Africa on the leadership of African states itself. “The argument that that African nations are suffering from continued colonial exploitation rings hollow”.

Alphons Ranner
中国在非洲的投资既有积极的一面,也有消极的一面。至于消极方面,有两个主要问题。项目在经济上不可行,因为一个适当的成本效益分析将产生净负面结果。另一个原因是,短期内,公共部门的投资负担过重,还款和利息成本都很高。除了中国特有的成本核算方法(风险边际、利润边际、贿赂等并不总是被考虑在内)之外。
为什么非洲国家要签署更多协议? 原因有以下几点: 政客们对未来的看法非常乐观(过于乐观): 投资项目何时完成,估计未来的收入并提供所谓的净资源。另一个原因可能是暂时有吸引力的大宗商品价格在未来将继续上涨。另一个原因是社会/政治方面的: 中国企业不关心人权问题,经常忽视对生命和财产造成巨大破坏的非法代理人战争。此外,他们接受常见的贿赂和腐败行为,其形式是将资源从卫生和教育等优先领域转移到维护一党专制统治及其后果等方面。众所周知,在许多国家,情况远非完全民主。
科恩(非洲事务局局长)将非洲的困境归咎于非洲国家自身的领导阶层。“认为非洲国家正在遭受持续的殖民剥削的说法听起来很空洞”。

Amady Samba Sow, lives in Dakar, Senegal
Why are we signing up for more ? Because it’s not a “debt trap”. Comparatively, it’s hard to roam around here in Senegal and see something and people say it was built by Europeans, but you see many stuff that were built by Chinese. The point is, if they came and worked and we saw it, when they ask for more business, you think we’ll refuse ? Would you personally dismiss a business partner although you see with your naked eyes the good work he’s done over the decades ? C’mon. We see them as fairer. Looks like jealousy from your part. Plus they are not suddenly asking anything, we’ve been doing business with them for decades. I don’t understand this thing, it’s like you’re telling us “hey don’t play with that guy, he is weird’ while when we played with the west, it killed us. Western people don’t get cautious when France does business with the US, they don’t warn when Italy does business with Germany, but when it’s China and Africa, “booooh, it’s a devil tryna eat youuuu”

Amady Samba Sow,住在塞内加尔的达喀尔。
我们为什么要签署更多的协议? 因为这不是一个“债务陷阱”。相比之下,在塞内加尔,你很难看到欧洲人建造的东西,但是你可以看到很多中国人建造的东西。问题是,如果他们认真干活,而且我们看到了,当他们要求更多的生意时,你认为我们会拒绝吗? 你会亲自解雇一个商业伙伴,尽管你亲眼看到他在过去几十年做的很好吗? 拜托。我们认为他们更公平。看起来你更像是嫉妒。另外,他们不会突然提出任何要求,我们已经和他们做生意几十年了。我不明白的是,就像你们告诉我们“嘿,不要和那个家伙一起玩,他很奇怪”,而当我们和西方一起玩的时候,它杀了我们。当法国和美国做生意时,西方人不会变得谨慎,当意大利和德国做生意时,他们也不会发出警告,但当中国和非洲做生意时,你们会说“哦,它是一个想要吃掉你的魔鬼。”

Mike Tennor
I’m not an expert on the subject, but I know that no African country ever prospered with the loans from the west through American aid,imf,world bank,etc… out of a 100 countries that joined the imf not one prospered, they actually all went broke. Ghana had the highest gdp and living standard, prior to joining the imf, with the promise of free trade bringing wealth if they lifted their markets protections, 8 years later they were the second poorest country in Africa!
The issue is that China need their resources, and offer much more favorable loans with much lower interest than any of us in the west, plus China doesn’t have a history of sending it’s military to get the natural resources of these countries!
There’s the old saying that for every finger pointed at someone else there are at least three pointed at us! At least they don’t claim to be the holders of Jesus teachings and Christianity, democracy,and rights for all! They are not as hypocritical as we are!
After a 100 years of business’s dealings with us in the west and progressively getting poorer and poorer, they finally found another economic power, that so far they have profited unimaginably more than they ever did under us! Perhaps we should be cleaning our house instead of focusing on theirs!
Maybe if we had given them more favorable business deals instead of backing some of the most sadistic dictators in history and didn’t rob them blind, they might’ve still be doing business with us! We need to learn the real history of what our corporations did and are doing to other countries, before we pass judgment! We have no high ground to stand on anymore!
That are a lot of forgiveness we need to ask of a lot of countries! Take the blinders off, the rest of the world don’t have them on, it’s only us and we are starting to look really dumb!

Mike Tennor
我不是这方面的专家,但我知道没有哪个非洲国家是靠美国、国际货币基金组织、世界银行等西方国家的贷款繁荣起来的……在加入国际货币基金组织的100个国家中,没有一个国家繁荣起来,实际上它们全都破产了。在加入国际货币基金组织之前,加纳拥有最高的GDP和生活水平,它们承诺,如果加纳解除市场保护,自由贸易将带来财富,然而8年后,他们成为非洲第二贫穷的国家!
问题是中国需要他们的资源,提供比我们西方国家更优惠的贷款,利率更低,另外,中国没有派军队去获取这些国家的自然资源的历史!
经过与西方国家100年的商业往来,他们越来越穷,终于找到了另一种经济力量,到目前为止,他们获得的利润比与我们签署协议下的任何时候都多得难以想象! 也许我们应该管好自己的事,而不是管他们的事!
也许,如果我们给他们更多有利的商业交易,而不是支持一些历史上最残暴的独裁者,而不是盲目地抢劫他们,他们可能还在和我们做生意! 在我们作出判断之前,我们需要了解我们的公司对其他国家所做和正在做的事情的真实历史! 我们再也没有优势了!
我们需要请求很多国家的原谅! 把眼罩摘掉,世界上的其他人都没有戴上,只有我们自己,我们开始看起来真的很愚蠢! 
环球旅行
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