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如果中国对印度宣战,印度会沦落为下一个叙利亚吗?
2020-01-28 墨点er 13 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:Will India end up like Syria if China declares war against India?
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/Will-India-end-up-like-Syria-if-China-declares-war-against-India
译文简介:你一定是疯了,才会认为中国可以把印度变成像叙利亚那样功能失调的国家。 由于你在国防相关问题上,不了解相关知识,我建议你核实一下中国媒体的说法。 
 
Vanmeet Talwar,管理顾问 
So here is the bare truth…if China does declare a war, it is China that has more to loose than India for the following reasons:
1.China has a larger economy currently and a war will bring both economies to its knees - the difference is that India will loose only a total of up to 2 trillion, whereas China may loose up to 11 trillion
2.China's economy is predominantly export oriented so a war will not only close borders since India's soft power is much bigger than China's, but will also loose its ports to the destruction of war (assuming that India too will loose its ports)
3.Unlike India, where everyone knows about the poverty issue that India is working to resolve, China does not allow journalists to go beyond its urban centres, the war will reveal the true face of China - yes the poor and highly controlled part of China by the state government.
4.A war with India would allow Hong Kong to upscale its independence struggle from the propaganda war that is currently brewing between China's state party and Hong Kong.
5.A full blown out war may even see an uprising from Tibet and the poor of China against Chinese regime - which will lead to not just an external conflict but also multiple internal conflicts.
These are just reasons that China will probably not go to war for. But as mentioned before, India will definitely have its own share of issues. But I have only mentioned issues that China will face if it goes for a war with India.
So long story short, India will not be a Syria, but China may open the flood gates to be one.

这就是赤裸裸的真相…… 如果中国真的宣战,中国打印度,中国更有可能会输,原因如下: 
1.中国现在的经济体规模比印度大,一场战争会让这两个经济体都崩溃——不同之处在于印度总共只会失去2万亿美元,而中国可能会失去11万亿美元 
2.中国的经济主要以出口为导向,所以一场战争不仅会关闭边界,而且因为印度的软实力比中国强大得多,还会让中国的港口因为战争而被摧毁(假设印度也会失去它自己的港口) 
3.不同于印度,印度每个人都知道印度正在努力解决自身的贫困问题,中国不允许记者离开其城市中心,战争将揭露中国的真实面目——是的,中国非常贫困并且被政府高度控制的地区将会公之于众。 
4.与印度的战争将使香港的独立斗争扩大规模,并使香港再与中国大陆的宣传战中解脱出来。 
5.一场全面爆发的战争甚至可能会导致西藏和中国穷人发起反抗中国的起义,这不仅会导致外部冲突,也会导致内部冲突。 
这些都是中国可能不会发动战争的原因。 但正如之前提到的,印度肯定也会有自己的问题。 但我只提到了如果中国与印度开战将会面临的问题。 
长话短说,印度不会成为叙利亚,但中国可能会打开闸门成为叙利亚。 

Khishore Ramanan,国家保险公司雇员,二级经理(2019年至今) 
No. Not at all.
India is economically much stronger than syria and syria just look like one of the states in India. However, geographical positioning and area doesnt determine a country’s power.
Syria is really suffering from its internal terrorism and extremisms. More than half a population is demanding a democratic country.
India is already a domacratic nation experiencing high growth rate. There are no such internal terrorism. The growth decline due to insurgents like maoists, naxalists are less.
There are much involvement of USA and Russia in determining the future of Syria. There are few UN interventions and sanctions in Syria, due to its internal calamities. People dont support government (monarchy)
No country can involve in India’s internal issues and hence UN interventions and sanctions are much less and are quite negligible. Since, India is a leading trade partner with many developed economies, sanctions cannot be easily imposed.
1.China have border issues with India. But it doesnt involve in a combat battle with India. As India is its leading trade partner.
2.India and China are partners in BRICS.
3.China is supporting India to get a permanent seat in UNO. (but it is opposing India’s relationship with japan)
4.China and India have fought in wars twice (1962 and 1967) and also had a major stand off (Dokhlam issue - 2017). Yet, its relation seem unchanged.
In other view, India and China are experiencing a little cold war, in becoming a leading nation in Asia.
India is maintaing good relations with its neighbourig countries, which helps India to crack any strategy followed by china. (Mainly String of pearls - acquiring power in pacific ocean through china’s one belt one road policy)
India have a much experienced defence services and it cannot be less effective when it comes to major battles. (Since China has a much larger armed forces than India and are technically stronger than India)

不会。 根本不可能。 
印度在经济方面比叙利亚强大得多,叙利亚的经济只相当于印度的一个邦。然而,地理位置和地域并不决定一个国家的实力。 
叙利亚正饱受国内恐怖主义和极端主义之苦。 一半以上的人要求建立一个民主国家。 
印度已经是一个民主的国家,发展速度很快。 没有叙利亚那样的内部恐怖主义。 由于毛派和纳萨尔派等叛乱分子的出现,经济增长有所下降。 
美国和俄罗斯在决定叙利亚的未来方面有很大的影响力。 由于叙利亚的内乱,联合国很少对其进行干预和制裁。 人民不支持政府(君主制) 
没有一个国家可以干涉印度的内部事务,因此联合国的干涉和制裁就少得多,而且可以忽略不计。 由于印度是许多发达经济体的主要贸易伙伴,制裁不容易实施。 
1.中国和印度有边界问题。 但这并不足以引起和印度的战争。 因为印度是它的主要贸易伙伴。 
2.印度和中国是金砖国家的合作伙伴。 
3.中国支持印度获得联合国的永久席位。 (但它反对印度与日本的关系) 
4.中国和印度已经打了两次战争(1962年和1967年),也有一个主要的对峙时期(多克拉姆问题发生- 2017年)。 然而,中国与印度的关系似乎没有改变。 
• 另一种观点认为,印度和中国正在经历一场小冷战,争夺成为亚洲的领导国家的地位。 

印度与周边国家保持着良好的关系,这有助于印度破解中国坚守的任何战略。 (主要是珍珠串反应——通过中国一带一路政策在太平洋获取力量支持) 
印度拥有经验丰富的国防服务,在重大战斗中,它的效率不会降低。 (因为中国的武装力量比印度庞大得多,技术上也比印度强) 

Jagdish Shetty,前董事/创始人 
You must be actually out of your mind to even think that china can turn INDIA into dysfunctional state like syria. Since you are not very educated in defence related matters my suggestion would be for you to check the facts from the chinese media statements.
1.They say INDIA has intruded in chinese territory.
2.They say INDIA is the agressor who has trampled the panchsheel agreement.
3.They say that the precondition to any talks would be only possible if INDIA retreats from its territory.
4.They say that any bilateral meeting between the heads of the two state cannot happen in the now concluding G20 summit because of the ongoing tensions. When INDIA never asked for a meeting in the first place.
5.They say INDIA is showing it's hegemonic behaviour in the region.
6.They say INDIA has to learn lessonsfrom history of 1962 conflict. 
7.They say that they will try any inflict damage to INDIA by supporting insurgency in sikkim.
8.The say that they are looking at military options to resolve the conflict.
9.And they keep issuing a lot of rhetoric for the local consumption through their mouth piece Global times to intimidate INDIA.
And all this while INDIA has just issued a statement that chinese troopes have to pull back and return to their original position.who do you think looks stronger here. The chinese want to test the INDIAN mettle,we will teach china the norms of international behaviour. The very economy on which they take pride of will be wiped out if they ever dare to act funny with INDIA.

你一定是疯了,才会认为中国可以把印度变成像叙利亚那样功能失调的国家。 由于你在国防相关问题上,不了解相关知识,我建议你核实一下中国媒体的说法。 
1.他们说印度入侵了中国的领土。 
2.他们说印度是践踏中印羊皮纸协议的侵略者。 
3.他们表示,任何谈判的前提条件都是印度撤出中国的领土。 
4.他们表示,由于目前的紧张局势,两国元首之间的任何双边会晤都不可能在即将结束的G20峰会上举行。 而且印度从一开始就没有要求会面。 
5.他们说,印度在该地区表现出霸权行为。 
6.他们说印度必须从1962年的冲突中汲取教训。
7.他们说,他们将试图通过支持锡金的叛乱活动,对印度造成损害。 
8.他们说,他们正在考虑采取军事手段来解决冲突。 
9.他们通过他们的《环球时报》发表了大量的言论来恐吓印度。 
而与此同时,印度刚刚发表了一份声明,称中国军队必须撤退,回到原来的位置。你觉得谁看起来更强壮。 中国人想要测试印度人的勇气,我们会教会中国什么是国际行为准则。 如果他们胆敢对印度耍花招,他们引以为傲的经济将会被摧毁。 

Anoop Siddhartha, Circleasiaindia责任有限公司董事长(2016-至今) 
India / China wars if fought will be a short term conflicts , neither countries have the means to occupy each other , both are too huge to be occupied .
Nuclear weapons makes sure neither side cannot be annihilated . A conventional war is not possible , we can have a area specific conflicts due to different perceptions on border positions.
Syria is a civil war with many foreign players supporting rival groups. China if it ever declare war on india, will never do the folly occupying the country , cause ever inch of land will be hotly contested . India is a young nation of 1.3 billion people , we never run short of people to defend the country, we will fight for every street , every home , every room and every inch of land .
And a external invasion will unite the country , to defend it by any means necessary.
And most important of all INDIA may not be strong enough to beat China, But we are strong enough to defend ourselves .
Finally a secret , you can trash a indian , he may not react , but you touch his mother , he will kill you. INDIA is our motherland and she has 1.3 billion children,

印度和中国如果发生战争,那也将是短期冲突,因为两国都没有占领对方的手段,中国和印度都太大了,不能被对方完全占领。 
核武器确保任何一方都不能被消灭。 传统的战争是不可能发生的,由于对边界位置的不同看法,我们可能会有一个特定的地区冲突。 
叙利亚战争是一场内战,许多外国势力支持敌对组织。 中国如果对印度宣战,永远不会做占领印度的蠢事,因为任何一寸土地都会引起激烈的争夺。 印度是一个拥有13亿人口的年轻国家,我们从不缺人保卫国家,我们将为每一条街道、每一个家庭、每一个房间和每一寸土地而战。 
外部入侵将使这个国家团结起来,以任何必要的手段保卫国家。 
最重要的是,印度也许没有强大到可以打败中国,但我们有足够的实力保卫自己。 
最后陈述一个事实,你可以贬低任何一个印度人,他可能没有反应,但你若是贬低他的母亲,他会杀了你。 印度是我们的祖国,她有13亿儿女。 

Anonymous匿名用户 
I believe Chinese army is more of a Paper tiger. Army men need certain temperament. They need determination and character. In India people join defense sector out of choice. Also its a tough and rigorous task. People stay voluntarily.
However in case of China, they are forced to join the Army. Today they have an entire generation of pampered kids. One child policy has destroyed the culture. Today’s generation in China are pampered by 4 Grandparents and 2 Parents. Hence they really do not understand hardship, sacrifice, etc. Also due to one Child policy, kids are expected to provide for their parents in old age, so someone serving the defense would always be worried about his/her aging parents than to fight.
Lastly I also believe China has never fought any war since long time. They have just bullied around weak nations. This keeps their morale high.
But all know, in the event of War, everyone loses much more with very little gain.

我认为中国军队更像是纸老虎。 军人需要一定的气质。 他们需要决心和特定品格。 在印度,人们选择主动加入国防部门。 这一部门拥有艰巨而严格的任务。 人们保持主动。 
然而在中国,他们被迫参军。 如今,他们有整整一代娇生惯养的孩子。 独生子女政策摧毁了他们的文化。 如今,中国的这一代人被祖父母和父母宠爱着。 因此,他们真的不理解困难、牺牲等等的含义。 同样由于独生子女政策,孩子们被期望在年老时供养他们的父母,所以一些为国防服务的人总是担心他/她年迈的父母而不是集中注意力去战斗。 
最后,我也相信中国已经很久没有进行过战争了。 他们只是欺负弱小国家。 这让他们保持高昂的士气。 
但是大家都知道,一旦发生战争,每个人损失的更多,得到的却很少。 
环球旅行
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