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2020-01-28 Zaky696 7 收藏 纠错&举报
原文标题:If China opened a military facility in Mexico, what do you believe would be the US response?
译文简介:只有美国和俄罗斯可以在世界各地建立军事基地。 中国或许很快就能做到这一点。 但是目前,他们正在侥幸获得整个南海和西菲律宾海。 
Dan Holliday,人才咨询/招聘顾问(2011-至今) 
It wouldn't happen (and if it did; but it won't):
The US is Mexico's largest trading partner.  Canada is Mexico's second largest trading partner.  Both the US and Canada are in a trade agreement with Mexico.  Both the US and Canada have common defense and intelligence agreements.  Both the US and Canada would be immediately threatened by the matter and would make Mexico suffer in ways that are hard to calculate -- ways that China could not ameliorate no matter how hard she tried. 
The US would do whatever it could to make China suffer, most likely by opening more bases near her.  I can see the US go to Vietnam (a nation that holds less love for China than the US, which is a considerable statement considering the history of the US in Vietnam) and negotiate a base deal (since the Vietnamese are furious with Chinese actions in the South China Sea). 
The US would extend it patrol deals with regional allies (Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand).
The US would likely shift its policy on Taiwan and offer to build bases on on that island,  It may possibly recognize Taiwanese independence and arm them to the teeth. 
China has no desire to be a global hegemony.  It understands the costs of that (in raw capital and in negotiating large cobwebs of entangling alliances).  It simply wants free trade for its goods and a supplier of minerals (notably, petroleum).  There's no need to build a base in Mexico -- it would cost her a lot, and bring remarkably little in return. 

• 美国是墨西哥最大的贸易伙伴。 加拿大是墨西哥的第二大贸易伙伴。 美国和加拿大都与墨西哥签署了贸易协定。美国和加拿大都签署了共同的国防和情报协议。美国和加拿大都将第一时间受到这一事件的威胁,他们将使墨西哥遭受难以估量的痛苦——无论中国如何努力,都无法改善这种痛苦。 
• 美国将尽其所能让中国遭殃,最有可能的是在中国附近国家开设更多的军事基地。 我觉得美国会去越南驻扎军队(一个对中国的爱比美国少的国家,考虑到美国在越南的历史,这是一个相当重要的声明),并谈判签署军事基地协议(因为越南人对中国在南中国海的行动感到愤怒)。 
• 美国将扩大与亚太地区盟友(包括菲律宾、新加坡、马来西亚、韩国、日本、澳大利亚和新西兰)的巡逻协议。 
• 美国可能会改变对台政策,提出在中国台湾建立军事基地,可能会支持台独,将台湾全副武装。 
• 中国无意成为全球霸权者。中国明白这样做的代价(以原始资本和谈判错综复杂的大型联盟为代价)。 中国只是想要其商品和矿产(尤其是石油)的供应商能与之进行自由贸易。中国没必要在墨西哥建立基地——那会花费中国很多钱,但回报却少得惊人。 

Silvestre Navarro
A few facts:
-No foreign country has ever been able to build and stablish a permanent military base in Mexico. That includes the USA.
-The Mexican Constitution forbids it.
-Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the USA and has established good commercial relationship with China
-It's a free world, if China has any commercial interest in Mexico, and viceversa, both political entities have the experience, maturity and common sense to engage in free trade without up setting any third party.
-Only the USA and Russia can get away with setting up military bases around the world. China might also be able to do so very soon. At the moment they are getting away with acquiring the whole of the South China Sea and the West Philippines Sea.

---没有一个国家能够在墨西哥建立和驻扎一个永久的军事基地。 这些国家包括美国。 
---只有美国和俄罗斯可以在世界各地建立军事基地。 中国或许很快就能做到这一点。 但是目前,他们正在侥幸获得整个南海和西菲律宾海。 

William Hennigan, 曾在英特尔,摩托罗拉工作 
This is a typical question asked by a nationalist Chinese person that resents the fact that there are US facilities in nations nearby to China.
The reality is that all the US facilities are there because their governments requested them. By that same token, Mexico would never ever ask China to place a facility in their country.
China has no allies. The US has many. Most US allies welcome a US facility. No country in the world welcomes a Chinese military facility on their territory...especially military facilities built on artificial islands in other nations territory.

这是一个典型的中国民族主义者提出的问题,他对美国在中国附近的国家设有军事设施感到非常不满。 事实是,美国在那些国家的所有军事设施,都是这些国家的政府要求设立的。 出于同样的原因,墨西哥永远不会要求中国在他们的国家设立军事设施。 中国没有盟友。 而美国有很多盟友。 大多数美国盟友欢迎美国在他们国家设立军事设施。 世界上没有一个国家欢迎中国在其领土上建设军事设施,特别是在其他国家领土的人工岛上建设军事设施。 

Carlos Eduardo Oliver, 在国际组织、外交使团等工作10多年。 
It is simply a non-starter.
 Clearly you don't know much about Mexico and just how patriotic and proud Mexicans are. 
 There is absolutely no way, no how, no matter how much money China offered Mexico, that Mexicans would allow China to have a military facility in their territory.
 The only potential threat Mexico has is the US, and the US has no plans for annexing further territory.
 Side note - it is interesting how none of the answers (so far) simply assume that this decision is the US's or China's alone and that Mexico would simply roll over.

这根本不可能。 显然你不太了解墨西哥,也不知道墨西哥人有多爱国,有多自豪。   
无论中国给墨西哥多少钱,墨西哥人绝对不可能允许中国在他们的领土上建立军事设施。 墨西哥唯一的潜在威胁是美国,而美国没有吞并更多领土的计划。 

Manuel Echeverria, 住在墨西哥 
Mexican here. They wouldn't do so without Mexico's cooperation - which Mexico would not give.
Mexican laws regarding military and foreign armies are very strict with a XIXth century mentality: foreign military officers on duty are not welcome. Foreigners of any kind are forbidden from owning land near the borders on our side, or on the shoreline.
Mexicans will regard military presence as suspicious and oppressive.

墨西哥人在此。如果没有墨西哥的合作,他们不能这么做---而且墨西哥也并不会同意。 墨西哥关于军事和外国军队的法律非常严格,带有一种十九世纪的心态:不欢迎驻守的外国军官。 禁止任何外国人在我们这边的边界附近或海岸线上拥有领地。 墨西哥人会认为外国军事驻扎的存在是可疑的,具有压迫性。 

Jon Mixon 
China would not be allowed to build a military facility in Mexico.
The United States would apply extreme amounts of pressure upon the Mexican government to prevent this from happening. Or the US would counter the beginnings of such a project by offering to sell advanced offensive weapons to South Korea, Japan and perhaps even Taiwan.
The question forgets that Mexico has a lengthy history of virulent racism against the Chinese which was capped off with a series of anti-Chinese pogroms in the early 20th century. It's doubtful that the Chinese would feel very welcome there.

中国将不被允许在墨西哥建立军事设施。 时期。 美国将对墨西哥政府施加极大的压力,以防止这种情况发生。 或者,美国将通过向韩国、日本、甚至中国台湾出售先进的进攻性武器,来反击此类项目的启动。 这个问题忽视了墨西哥长期以来对中国人的恶毒种族主义,并在20世纪初以一系列反华大屠杀告终。 中国人在墨西哥是否会受到欢迎是值得怀疑的。 

Sashank Reddy,在Neato机器人公司工作 
Well the chinese have never had overseas bases. Unlikely as well. But nothing prevents Chinese from displacing US and Canada as number 1 trading partner for south america.
They are more likely to arm the southern nations rather than get their own hands dirty. One should be worried of nuclear know how being shared with mexico enabling them to build it (like N.K). They can also enter the nuclear umbrella with China instead of US. This will wreak havoc in the relations and security situation of USA. Damage already done without firing a single shot. The chinese believe in fighting with witts first. Economic and political war first. Just the news of such a negotiation will run panic across half the world.
Having a military base in Mexico is a guarantee of war preparations against USA. It is futile as the US will respond with targeted defenses.

中国人从来没有在海外设立过基地。 这不太可能。 但没有什么能阻止中国人取代美国和加拿大成为南美的头号贸易伙伴。 他们更有可能武装南方国家,而不是亲自动手。 人们应该担心的是,中国如何与墨西哥共享核能,使他们能够制造核武器(就像北韩一样)。 他们也可以加入中国的核保护伞,而不是美国的。 这将对墨西哥与美国的关系和安全局势造成严重破坏。 现在,一枪未发,但是已经造成伤害了。 中国人相信智取为上。 经济和政治战争最佳。 仅仅是需要谈判的消息就会引起半个世界的恐慌。 在墨西哥拥有军事基地是对美国发动战争准备的前提。 这是徒劳的,因为美国将以有针对性的防御作为回应。 

Kenneth Thomas,协助经济计划小组工作 
China or any other country placing a military base in Mexico would require amendment of the Mexican constitution. As such, it is a highly counterfactual premise.
That said, given that it would be a direct interference in the US sphere of influence as well as contrary to security doctrine designed to keep potential wars far from the US homeland, it would likely be treated similarly to the USSR attempting to base troops and missiles in Cuba.
JFK eventually moved the US to DefCon 2 and put nuclear bombers in the air toward the USSR, over that stunt.

中国或任何其他国家在墨西哥设立军事基地将需要修改墨西哥宪法。 因此,这是一个高度反事实的前提。 

Greg Burch,律师,“中国通”,业余机器人专家 
A2A.  This scenario is almost impossible to imagine -- so many other things in the world would have to change that "the US response" would have to be coming from a country that's very different from the US in our universe.
With that said, the biggest issue to me is why Mexico would ever do such a thing.  One of the first things that would happen is a much more closed border between the US and Mexico.  This would mean financial and social ruin for Mexico (and many unhappy drug users in the US).

话虽如此,对我来说最大的问题是为什么墨西哥会做这样的事情。首先会发生的事情之一是美国和墨西哥之间会加倍封闭边境。 这对墨西哥(以及美国许多不满足的吸毒者)来说意味着经济和社会的毁灭。 
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