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越南仅仅比中国落后10年吗?最近,我经常从越南的年轻人那里听到这样的话
2019-11-20 Lina 3 收藏 纠错&举报
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译文简介:越南的问题在于,该国的男性人口中有很大一部分人相对懒惰,他们依赖于女性人口来承担大部分负担。如果没有后者做大部分的工作,抚养孩子和操持家务,越南将成为第三世界国家。
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原文地址:https://www.quora.com/Is-Vietnam-just-10-years-behind-China-What-do-I-always-hear-about-this-from-Vietnamese-youths-recently

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Minh Long, lives in Vietnam
As a Vietnamese person, let me tell you the truth from a Vietnamese perspective.
Vietnam is inferior to China in nearly all areas. Don't look at the limited data of GDP and GDP per capita; look broadly at all aspects.
Education: Vietnam does not have any University of the top 1000 in the world, while China has 2 universities in the top 50 in the world. Beijing and Tsinghua University. The distance is too big.
Transportation and infrastructure: Vietnam does not have any subway or high speed train. 2 metro lines, in Hanoi, built by China, in Ho Chi Minh City built by Japan. China has built the world's largest bullet-train network and has 9 of the 20 largest seaports in the world.
The quality of Chinese roads is so good, I think maybe comparable to the United States, while roads in Vietnam are quite bad. After several years, the roads have been damaged, mainly due by corrupt officials and abating materials.
Industry and technology: Vietnam is bad, very, very bad. In manufacturing industries, almost all machinery components are imported, Vietnam does not produce anything at all. If Vietnam can produce, it will not compete well with products from China and Taiwan.


Arch Stanton
No Vietnam is not even close to “10 years”. I’ll address the youths believing this later.
China is a fully industrialized nation. I mean industrialized like Western Europe and industrialized like the Soviet Union and Russia now. Industrialized like Canada and the United States. Industrialized like Japan and South Korea.
The industrialization of China means China can build anything from scratch. China builds and sells to overseas companies giant super freight tanker ships and super tankers and giant container ships. China can mass produce trains, buses, trucks, automobiles, whatever consumer goods, etc. Vietnam cannot do any of this.
Vietnam has steel mills and chemical plants and other “industrial infrastructure” but in no way on any scale near that of China or South Korea or Japan or even Taiwan.
China had vast steel mills and chemical plants and other “heavy industries” going back to the 1960s but under Mao the vast industrial apparatus was underutilized or utilized very inefficiently. Once the economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping were put in place that vast industrial infrastructure in place was put into proper use and the Chinese economy took off.
Vietnam can NEVER have in place the vast industrial infrastructure already had in place in the 1980s when China “took off” economically. THAT is what is going to stop Vietnam from ever matching the “China economic miracle” LET ALONE IN JUST TEN YEARS.
Now why the Vietnam youth strongly believe in the “will catch up in ten years” is the exact same reason that india youth believe that “india will be a superpower in 2020”: Vietnam and indian youth HAVE BEEN TOLD OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS THAT “vietnam will be china by the 2020s” AND “india will surpass the United States by 2020!”


Kwancen Tyo
Yes, this decade is calculated based on the speed of development in China in the past. China’s GDP has grown by $9,000,000,000,000 billion over the past decade(2008–2018), according to the proportion of the Vietnamese population, Vietnam’s GDP needs to increase about 216,000,000,000 in the next decade, probably double the existing GDP. In 2018, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate is about 7%. If keep this number for 10 years, it is just enough to meet the double standard.
I have to say that the cultures of China and Vietnam are very similar, I often see Chinese youths saying the same thing to the United States.
If the US monetary policy and China's industrial policy do not change, Vietnam has the opportunity to catch up with China within ten years. Vietnam's advantage is the same as that of China in 2005,highly educated workers, relatively low salaries, stable political environment and long-term development policies. From the diplomatic environment, China benefited from the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Now Vietnam’s position in Sino-US relations is also similar. These conditions have given Vietnam a opportunity to develop rapidly, a relatively low population base makes it easier for GDP per capita to exceed China.
Chinese people often say that opportunities are hidden in risks, and the same opportunities must be accompanied by risks. The risks of Vietnam's development are those that are different from China.
1.Vietnam’s dollar debt is a time bomb. Vietnam’s GDP is not large enough, but debt exceeds 60% of GDP. If the dollar’s ??quantitative easing ends, the bomb will explode at any time and the exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong may collapse. The recent US signal is worthy of attention.
2.Education is also a problem. In the basic education stage, Vietnam did a good job, but it seems there is no complete and forward-looking plan for higher education. This may be related to Vietnam’s failure to think about the destination of national development.
3.The Vietnamese army controls 10% of the country's GDP. Vietnam has banned military business since 2017, but its effect is weak, from the experience of China, military business will directly lead to corruption and hinder reform.
4.The fourth industrial revolution that people have been discussing, if this really happens, will it offset the low cost of labor in Southeast Asia? I mean, if the price of AI and robots is low enough, they replace the workers on the processing line, then the road to accumulate capital as a factory in the world is interrupted.
I saw someone saying that Vietnam can't do the whole industry chain like China, I don't think Vietnam needs it. It is enough for Vietnam to focus on just a few industries like South Korea or Germany.
At present, the direction of reform in Vietnam has moved away from the Chinese model, it is exploring its own path and let us wait and see.

是的,这十年是根据中国过去的发展速度来计算的。中国国内生产总值在过去10年(2008-2018年)增长了9000亿美元,根据越南人口的比例,越南的GDP在未来十年需要增加约2160亿美元,可能是现有GDP的两倍。2018年,越南的GDP增长率约为7%。如果这个数字保持10年,正好可以满足两倍的标准。
我不得不说,中国和越南的文化非常相似,我经常看到中国年轻人对美国说同样的话。
如果美国的货币政策和中国的产业政策不改变,越南有机会在十年内赶上中国。越南的优势与2005年的中国相同,工人受教育程度高,工资相对较低,政治环境稳定,有长期的发展政策。从外交环境上看,中国受益于美苏之间的冷战。越南在中美关系中的立场也是类似的。这些条件给了越南一个快速发展的机会,相对较低的人口基数使人均GDP更容易超过中国。
中国人常说,机遇藏在风险之中,机遇也必然伴随着风险。越南发展面临的风险与中国不同。
1.越南的美元债务是个定时炸弹。越南的GDP不够大,但债务却超过了GDP的60%。如果美元的量化宽松政策结束,这颗炸弹将随时爆炸,越南盾的汇率可能崩溃。美国最近发出的信号值得关注。
2.教育也是一个问题。在基础教育阶段,越南做得很好,但似乎没有一个完整的和前瞻性的高等教育计划。这可能与越南没有考虑国家发展的目标有关。
3.越南军队控制着该国10%的GDP。越南自2017年开始禁止军事商业,但其效果较弱,从中国的经验来看,军事商业将直接导致腐败和阻碍改革。
4.人们一直在讨论的第四次工业革命,如果真的发生了,它会抵消东南亚的低劳动力成本吗?我的意思是,如果人工智能和机器人的价格足够低,它们会取代生产线上的工人,那么作为世界工厂积累资本的道路就会中断。
我看到有人说越南不能像中国那样做整个产业链,我不认为越南需要它。对越南来说,只关注韩国或德国等少数几个行业就足够了。
目前,越南的改革方向已经偏离了中国模式,正在探索自己的道路,让我们拭目以待。

Giao Vu, briefly visited/worked in China a long time ago
Yes, based on metrics like GDP per capita, but Vietnam still faces many challenges in creating the types of industries that will make some headway in the future. It isn’t where China was 10 years ago infrastructure wise. China had built bullet trains by then. Companies like Huawei were already threats to non-Chinese competitors (Cisco accused Huawei of violating its patents back then.) Chinese policies have also helped internal players to become dominant - facebook’s Zuckerberg admitted recently that facebook missed some of the great ideas that the Chinese counterparts of facebook in China had come up with. Had facebook not been banned in China, those Chinese companies might have struggled, just as any Vietnamese start-ups that have tried to gain a market foothold in the face of facebook’s dominance in Vietnam. That has many consequences (think of this way: part of the GDP that could have been counted has gone overseas to facebook’s headquarters to be counted ad revenues for facebook and added to US GDP.) China’s huge market also helps well-run corporations tremendously, so much that foreign companies (including Boeing, Tesla) fall over themselves to crack the market, having to give something - technology transfer - in return. Vietnam has very few of those advantages. The country also does not have the advantages that South Korea of the late 80s and 90s possessed - the resource pooling made possible by the organic growth of the chaebol conglomerates riding a world economic boom and an explosion in demand due to globalization. If Vietnam tries to do that now, the USA and the EU will readily slaps economic sanctions on the country.
For Vietnam, the “easy” part is done. Now is the hard part: growing the economy past the middle income trap with all the rules in place, in the face of a global economic slowdown to boot. Therefore it’s a question mark if 10 years from now Vietnam will be where China is now economically.


Well, I just wonder why people said that Vietnam or Thai or such countries are behind China or not developed yet compared to China bla bla.. I can not understand this question.
If China is so developed well, why so many China people move out and in such countries? Even, the China people,moved in such countries, are rich people and also young people who want to work there. There are also many illegal workers too. If you are rich in China, why move into inferior country? if you are young and want to work? why move in there? where the salary and working condition and living quality should be lower than those of China? Why more and more China people are trying this?
Sorry. My answer looks far way from the main question but I would ask about this.

Ian Malkus,已经退休了,想知道更多
你知道吗?
中国有多少中国人住在越南?
不仅在越南,而且在大多数亚洲国家,如泰国、柬埔寨、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等。
如果你去那里,你会惊讶地发现有那么多来自中国的中国人(不是当地的中国人!)住在那里,而且越来越多的中国人试图去这些国家生活和工作。
然而,在那里工作是不容易获得签证的。大多数国家都不欢迎中国人住在他们的国家。
许多移民被要求,特别是来自中国的人,额外签署良好的行为信(因为很多中国人做坏事,粗鲁,不尊重他们的文化和宗教等。这看起来很公平)。然而,许多中国人去那个国家。
越南就是其中之一。中国人更喜欢一个许多中国人多年前就定居下来的国家。他们住在那里很容易,因为他们仍然可以用汉语和中国当地人交流。但不幸的是,大多数中国人和其他当地人,比如马来人,尤其是马来西亚人,相处得并不融洽。这也会给当地中国人带来一个大问题,因为很多当地人对此持否定态度。即使在一些国家,当地人和中国人之间也存在着古老的问题(宗教和民族问题),他们在经历了艰难的岁月后,很久很久以前就来到这个国家定居了。
嗯,我只是想知道为什么人们说越南或泰国等国家落后于中国,或者与中国相比还不发达。我不能理解这个问题。
如果中国如此发达,为什么那么多中国人搬到这些国家? 即便如此,移居到这些国家的中国人,既有富人,也有想在那里工作的年轻人。也有许多非法工人。如果你在中国很富有,为什么要搬到劣等国家? 如果你年轻,想要工作? 为什么要搬过去? 那里的工资、工作条件和生活质量应该低于中国? 为什么越来越多的中国人在尝试这个?
对不起。我的回答似乎与主要问题相去甚远,但我会问这个问题。

Elm Shea
The problem with Vietnam is that much of the male population is relatively lazy and relies on the female population to carry much of the burden. Without the latter doing most of the work and heavy lifting in raising the kids and managing the household, Vietnam would be a 3rd world country.

越南的问题在于,该国的男性人口中有很大一部分人相对懒惰,他们依赖于女性人口来承担大部分负担。如果没有后者做大部分的工作,抚养孩子和操持家务,越南将成为第三世界国家。
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